Title : Survival prognosis of parkinson’s disease in Baku
Abstract:
Introduction: Parkinson's disease, as a severe neurodegenerative pathology, has a negative impact on the quality and life expectancy of people. One of the criteria characterizing the medical and social severity of the disease, is the probability of survival after its initial manifestation.
Methods: The observation was carried out retrospectively, information was collected on all patients (110 patients) who were first diagnosed with Parkinson's disease in 2009-2010. These patients are provided with free medications, which made it possible to provide diagnostic monitoring for them in clinics. During 2010-2019 years 94 patients with Parkinson's disease died. All medical death certificates were selected for analysis. Diagnoses in column "a" of this document were accepted as direct causes of death, regardless of the presence or absence of a causal relationship between these diagnoses and Parkinson's disease. The survival index was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier moment method based on mortality after the initial diagnosis of patients. The average error of the indicator was determined using the Greenwood formula.
Discussion: At the time of initial diagnosis, 58.2% of patients were under 70 years of age, and 41.8% were over 70 years of age. The majority of them (70.9%) did not report symptoms of dementia. The proportion of men among patients (72.7%) increased up to 3 times. Over the past 10 years, 94 patients (85.5%) experienced acute cerebrovascular disorders (36.25), acute myocardial infarction (24.5%), died from pulmonary thrombosis (11.7%) and pneumonia (10.6%). During this period, the survival rate of patients in the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth years (0.94, respectively); 0.87; 0.86; 0.84;0.76; 0.75; 0.74; 0.65; 0.56 and 0.41.
Conclusions:
- The survival rate of patients with Parkinson's disease within 10 years after the manifestation of symptoms ranges from 0.94 to 0.41 (five-year survival rate is 0.76)
- The survival rate depends on the age at the onset of the disease (≤70 ? ?70 years old 0,96±0,20 – 0,50±0,11; 0,91±0,41 – «0»), and sex (in men 0.93±0.33 – 0.29±0.11 and in women 0.97±0.23 – 0.65±0, 15), from multimorbidity (0.87±0.50 patients with dementia, 0.88±0.61 patients with cardiovascular diseases, 0.97±0.21 – 0.48±0.11 in persons without chronic diseases).
- The average annual probability of death in Baku (8.55%) is close to the corresponding indicator for people of Asian origin living in the United States of America (8.5%), and is 2 times higher compared to the corresponding indicator for the population of Sweden ( 4.0%).
Keywords: Survival of Parkinson’s disease, Age of onset, Multimorbidity
